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Risk assessment instruments

Overview
The research of the last two decades has produced a number of assessment tools designed to assess risk of future violence. While it still may not be possible to predict risk with unequivocal accuracy, these tools have undoubtedly improved predictive assessment, particularly when used in combination with clinical evaluations. Many of the instruments continue to be refined, develop with continued research, and incorporate new findings. The tools are divided into two principal categories: actuarial instruments and structured clinical guides.

Actuarial instruments attach specific statistical weighting to different variables which assess the risk. They are premised on the idea that, if accuracy of prediction is the most important factor, it is best to find out how members of a comparable group of individuals conducted themselves over time. This is achieved by follow-up research on a particular group over set periods of time. With the follow-up data on violence available, it is possible then to link these statistically to various data obtained at an earlier time. It is similar, in principle, to the way in which insurance companies evaluate risk for many types of eventuality in order to set their rates accordingly. A key defining aspect of actuarial instruments is that scores obtained on individuals can be related to statistical reference data.

Structured Professional Guidelines, in contrast, is based on the idea that a great deal has been learned over the past two decades about the factors which should be taken in account when conducting risk assessments on various types of mental health, forensic, and correctional populations. The various structured guides (see below) define terms, provide items which seem merited on the basic of scientific and professional grounds, and suggest methods of scoring. Different instruments are used to assess different types of risk. Similarly, different instruments can be used with different age groups, primarily adult and youth. It is important to realize that much of the testing of these instruments has used a predominately male population although several of these guides can be used on females. The goal of this line of instruments is not so much risk prediction as risk prevention, because the guidelines offer treatment targets and insight into factors that in- of decrease risk in an individual case.

NOTE THAT THE STRUCTURED PROFESSIONAL GUIDELINES REQUIRE SPECIALIZED TRAINING IN ORDER TO USE THESE INSTRUMENTS RELIABLY AND ACCURATELY. THE SAME APPLIED TO THE PSYCHOPATHY CHECKLISTS.

Risk Category Adult instruments Dutch version available Child/Youth Instruments Dutch version available
Violence risk HCR-20
PCL-R
HKT-30
Yes
Yes
Yes
SAVRY
PCL:YV
Yes
Yes
General risk of antisocial behaviour LSI-R
OASys (in Dutch: RISc)
No
Yes
YLS/CMI
EARL-20B
EARL-21G
Yes
Yes
In preparation
Relational violence risk SARA
B-SAFER
No
Yes
Child abuse risk CARE-NL Yes (English version in prep.)
Sexual violence risk RSVP
SVR-20
Static-99
No
Yes
Yes
J-SOAP Yes

Actuarial Instruments:

PSYCHOPATHY CHECKLIST - Revised (PCL-R)
R.D. Hare, 1991 & 2003
Even though it was not originally designed as a risk assessment device, the Hare PCL-R has gradually come to be used to assess likely future recidivism and violent offending. It is a 20-item rating scale, scored on the basis of both a semi-structured interview and collateral information. It has been validated for use in adult male correctional and forensic psychiatric samples. Over recent years, research has shown that it is a relatively good predictor of violence across diverse populations, including females. Hare PCL-R scores are incorporated into a number of subsequently developed risk assessment tools and guides.

The Hare PCL-R can be obtained from:
Multi-Health Systems Inc.
3770 Victoria Park Avenue
Toronto, Ontario
M4H 3M6
Tel: 800-456-3003 (US) 800-268-6011 (Canada)
E-mail: customerservice@mhs.com

PCL-R

DUTCH VERSION OF THE PCL-R:
Vertommen, H., Verheul, R., De Ruiter, C., & Hildebrand, M. (2002).
Hare’s Psychopathie checklist: Handleiding [Dutch version of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised- Manual].

The Dutch version of the Hare PCL-R can be obtained from:
www.pearson-nl.com
Radarweg 60-A1
1043 NT AMSTERDAM
Tel: +31 (0)20 581 5500
Fax: +31 (0)20 581 5555
E-mail: klantenservice-nl@pearson.com

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PSYCHOPATHY CHECKLIST – YOUTH VERSION (PCL:YV)
Adelle Forth, David Kosson, & Robert D. Hare, 1996

The Hare Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV) helps identify potential patterns of cheating, fighting, bullying, and other antisocial acts in youths. Early identification of these traits is critical, not only for the near future of these youths, but for their development into adulthood.
The PCL:YV can be used to help you understand the factors that contribute to the development of adult antisocial behavior and psychopathy. Adapted from the Hare Psychopathy Checklist–Revised (PCL–R), the most widely used measure of psychopathy in adults, the PCL:YV uses an expert-rater format that emphasizes the need for multidomain and multisource information.
The PCL:YV assessment measures interpersonal, affective, and behavioral features related to a widely understood, traditional concept of psychopathy. The PCL:YV yields dimensional scores for clinical purposes, but it can also be used to classify individuals into groups for research purposes. This 20-item scale was designed specifically for use with adolescents to assess psychopathic features. It has been validates for use in both male and female populations between the ages of 12 and 17.

The Hare PCL: YV can be obtained from:
Multi-Health Systems Inc.
3770 Victoria Park Avenue
Toronto, Ontario M4H 3M6
Canada
Tel: 800-456-3003 (US) 800-268-6011 (Canada)
E-mail: customerservice@mhs.com

PCL:YV

DUTCH VERSION OF THE PCL:YV

de Ruiter, C., & Hildebrand, M. (2010)
Hare Psychopathie Checklist: Jeugdversie (PCL:JV): Handleiding.

The official manual for the Dutch PCL: Youth Version (PCL: Jeugdversie), including a separate chapter summarizing the findings with the PCL:YV in Dutch adolescent offenders, was published in January 2010 by Pearson (www.pearson-nl.com).

The Dutch version of the Hare PCL:YV can be obtained from:
www.pearson-nl.com
Radarweg 60-A1
1043 NT AMSTERDAM
Tel: +31 (0)20 581 5500
Fax: +31 (0)20 581 5555
E-mail: klantenservice-nl@pearson.com

DUTCH VERSION OF THE PCL:YV

LEVEL OF SERVICE INVENTORY - Revised (LSI-R)
Andrews & Bonta, 1995

This is a 54-item rating scale used to assess the likelihood of general recidivism among adult offenders. It is designed to measure attributes of offenders and their situations in relation to level of supervision and treatment decisions. It has been validated for use with adult male and female correctional offenders.

The Hare LSI-R can be obtained from:
Multi-Health Systems Inc.
3770 Victoria Park Avenue
Toronto, Ontario M4H 3M6
Canada
Tel: 800-456-3003 (US) 800-268-6011 (Canada)
E-mail: customerservice@mhs.com

LSI-R

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YOUTH LEVEL OF SERVICE/CASE MANAGEMENT INVENTORY (YLS/CMI)
Hoge & Andrews, 2002

This 43-item instrument was designed to measure risk, need, and responsivity factors in adolescents who have had contact with the justice system. It has been validated for use with both males and females between the ages of 12 and 17 and uses file information, self-report and collateral report information, and as well as results of other formal assessments.

The YLS/CMI can be obtained from:
Multi-Health Systems Inc.
3770 Victoria Park Avenue
Toronto, Ontario M4H 3M6
Canada
Tel: 800-456-3003 (US) 800-268-6011 (Canada)
E-mail: customerservice@mhs.com

YLC/CMI

DUTCH VERSION OF THE YLS/CMI:
De Ruiter & Hildebrand, 2009

The Dutch YLS/CMI can be obtained from:
www.pearson-nl.com
Radarweg 60-A1
1043 NT AMSTERDAM
Tel: +31 (0)20 581 5500
Fax: +31 (0)20 581 5555
E-mail: klantenservice-nl@pearson.com

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OFFENDERS ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (OASys)
National Probation Service for England and Wales, 2003

The Prison and Probation Services in the UK developed a new Offenders Assessment System, known as "OASys". This is designed to identify offending-related needs, such as lack of accommodation, poor educational and employment skills, substance misuse and attitudinal difficulties for offenders over 18 years of age. It also assesses the risk of harm offenders pose to themselves and others. The objective is two-fold: (i) to devise individual sentence plans from these assessments which manage and reduce the risks and needs identified and target the appropriate types of intervention for each offender and (ii) to enable probation officers who will have access to an offender's OASys assessment and sentence plan prior to his release on licence, to make advance arrangements in relation to matters such as accommodation or post-release drug treatment—or public protection in cases where the prisoner presents a significant risk of harm. OASys will not, however, cover all prisoners—in particular, prisoners serving terms of less than 12 months, and remand prisoners, will be excluded from the system. A focus on thorough initial assessment of risks and needs reflects international good practice.

In 2001 the Probation Service decided to move to early implementation of OASys as a paper-based system, but the Prison Service decided not to implement it until an electronic system (OASys IT) was available. All 42 probation areas were using OASys IT by June 2004.

More information on OASys can be obtained from:
www.probation.homeoffice.gov.uk

De Dutch Probation Service (Reclassering Nederland) developed a similar risk-need assessment tool on the basis of OASys, the RISc (Recidive Inschattings Scalen).

RISc (RECIDIVE INSCHATTINGS SCHALEN)
Reclassering Nederland, 2004

De RISc is een diagnostisch instrument dat duidelijk maakt in welke mate er sprake is van risico op recidive. Met de RISc kan de reclasseringswerker beoordelen welke zogeheten criminogene factoren bij een dader/verdachte de kans op recidive vergroten. Bovendien geeft de RISc uitsluitsel over welke interventies nodig zijn om de recidivekans te verkleinen. De RISc richt zich niet alleen op problemen en tekorten van een dader/verdachte, het instrument werpt ook licht op iemands mogelijkheden om zijn gedrag te veranderen.In feite beantwoordt de RISc cruciale vragen als:

For more information on the RISc, see: RISc.pdf

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STATIC-99
Hanson & Thornton, 1999

The original 10-item STATIC-99 was designed to assess the long-term potential for sexual recidivism among adult male sex offenders. It has so far been used predominately within the correctional system.

For more information on the STATIC-99:
Dr. R.K. Hanson
Senior Research Officer
11th Floor, 340 Laurier Ave. West
Ottawa, ON K1A 0P8
Canada

DUTCH VERSION OF THE STATIC-99
Static-99: inschatting van het risico van seksueel gewelddadige recidive bij volwassen seksuele delinquenten.
Van Beek, De Doncker, & De Ruiter, 2001
Vertaling van de oorspronkelijke uitgave van A. Phenix, R.K. Hanson & D. Thornton

De Static-99 bestaat uit 10 items die alle verwijzen naar statische risicofactoren zoals delictgeschiedenis, slachtofferkeuze of leeftijd bij het plegen van het eerste delict. Het instrument leent zich vooral voor een eerste beoordeling of een soort ‘baseline’ van het risico.

The Dutch version of the Static-99 can be obtained from:
www.forumeducatief.nl

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JUVENILE SEX OFFENDER ASSESSMENT PROTOCOL-II (J-SOAP-II)
Prentky & Righthand, 2003
The J-SOAP-II is an experimental scale and is the subject of ongoing research to improve reliability and further enhance predictive validity. The authors appreciate feedback from users about areas of ambiguity and ways to increase clarity. They are available to answer questions concerning the use of the J-SOAP, updates on validity studies, and training opportunities.

A digital version of the J-SOAP is available at: www.csom.org/pubs/JSOAP.pdf and at: www.nicic.org/Library/019361

Printed copies of the J-SOAP manual are available from the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention’s Juvenile Justice Clearinghouse.
Tel: +1- 800–851–3420 and ask for NCJ 202316.

Contact Information:
Robert Prentky, Ph.D.
P.O.Box 162
Accord, MA 02018-0162
Tel: (508) 697–2744
E-mail: rprentky@comcast.net

Sue Righthand, Ph.D.
P.O.Box 1047
Rockland, ME 04841
Voice Mail: (207) 594–7880
E-mail: Rtnds@aol.com

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Structured Professional Judgment Guides:

SPOUSAL ASSAULT RISK ASSESSMENT GUIDE (SARA)
Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995

This is a 20-item set of risk factors for use in the assessment of spousal assault. It can be used to help gauge risk of future violence in men apprehended or refered for spousal assault.

The SARA can be obtained from:
Multi-Health Systems Inc.
3770 Victoria Park Avenue
Toronto, Ontario M4H 3M6
Canada
Tel: 800-456-3003 (US) 800-268-6011 (Canada)
E-mail: customerservice@mhs.com

SARA

DUTCH VERSION OF THE SARA:
Martin Hildebrand and Corine de Ruiter prepared a Dutch translation of the SARA, that will be published in 2009.

More information can be obtained by Contact on this website.

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BRIEF SPOUSAL ASSAULT FORM for the EVALUATION of RISK (B-SAFER)
Kropp, Hart, Belfrage, 2005
The B-SAFER is a structured professional guideline for assessing risk for spousal assault, designed to be especially useful for decision making by police and other justice agencies.
The B-SAFER can be obtained from: proactive-resolutions.com

DUTCH VERSION OF THE B-SAFER
De Ruiter, 2009

B-SAFER

The Dutch version of the B-SAFER was developed in the course of a research project for the Dutch Probation Service. In this project, it was shown that the B-SAFER could be reliably coded by probation officers after a one-day training. Also, the B-SAFER predicted future spousal violence over a 2-yr follow-up period (de Ruiter & Thijssen, in preparation). The B-SAFER comprises 10 risk factors and 5 victim vulnerability factors. The instrument is a valuable tool in the design of a safety and risk management plan in cases of relational violence.

The Dutch B-SAFER is published by Corine de Ruiter and can be ordered through: corine.de.ruiter@xs4all.nl. The price is 25 euro.

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HISTORICAL, CLINICAL, RISK MANAGEMENT-20, Version 2 (HCR-20)
Webster, Douglas, Eaves, & Hart, 1997

Originally made available in 1995, the HCR-20 Structured Guide for the Assessment of Violence Risk was later modified in light of actual clinical experience gained from initial trials. It is intended for use with civil psychiatric, forensic, and criminal justice populations. It consists of 20 items as well as the Hare PCL-R. There are 10 historical variables, 5 clinical variables, and 5 risk management factors. Each item is scored as 0 (not present), 1 (possibly present) or 2 (definitely present) to yield a score out of 40. It includes variables that capture relevant past, present, and future considerations. It can be regarded as an important first step in the risk assessment process. The manual provides information about how and when to conduct violence risk assessments, reviews the research on which the risk factors are based, and suggests key questions which should be addressed when making judgments about risk. The scheme has been tested in all three of the domains for which it was originally intended.

Results of various studies which have emanated from it are summarized by K. Douglas periodically, see: kdouglas.wordpress.com/hcr-20
The HCR-20 has been translated into several different languages and is under active examination internationally. Its work is guided, to an extent, by a consortium of researchers and clinicians who make up the RISC-TEAM, a subgroup of the International Association of Forensic Mental Health Services, see www.iafmhs.org.

To order the HCR-20:
Psychological Assessment Resource, Inc.
16204 North Florida Avenue
Lutz, FL 33549
USA
Telephone: +1-800-331-8378 or +1-813-449-4065
Website: www3.parinc.com

HCR20

DUTCH VERSION OF THE HCR-20
Philipse, De Ruiter, Hildebrand, & Bouman, 2000

The HCR-20 was one of the first risk assessment instruments that were introduced into The Netherlands. The translation and adaptation was carried out by researchers from two forensic hospitals: Van der Hoeven Kliniek and Pompe Stichting. The Dutch version has been extensively tested in independent studies with patients from Dutch forensic hospitals (De Vogel & De Ruiter, 2004; De Vogel et al., 2004; De Vogel & De Ruiter, 2005, 2006; Philipse, Van Erven, & Peters, 2002; Hildebrand, Hesper, Spreen, & Nijman, 2005). A number of these studies can be downloaded from this website: English language publications.

‘HCR-20: beoordelen van het risico van gewelddadig gedrag’ can be obtained from:
www.forumeducatief.nl and from www.forumpompeii.nl

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STRUCTURED ASSESSMENT OF VIOLENCE RISK IN YOUTH (SAVRY)
Borum, Bartel, & Forth, 2002

The SAVRY is composed of 24 items in three risk domains (Historical Risk Factors, Social/Contextual Risk Factors, and Individual/Clinical Factors), drawn from existing research and the professional literature on adolescent development as well as on violence and aggression in youth. Each risk item has a three-level rating structure with specific rating guidelines (Low, Moderate, or High). In addition to the 24 risk factors, the SAVRY also includes six Protective Factor items that are rated as either Present or Absent.
The SAVRY is useful in the assessment of either male or female adolescents between the ages of 12 and 18 years. It may be used by professionals in a variety of disciplines who conduct assessments and/or make intervention/supervision plans concerning violence risk in youth. Based on the structured professional judgment (SPJ) model, the SAVRY helps assist in structuring an assessment so that the important factors will not be missed and, thus, will be emphasized when formulating a final professional judgment about a youth's level of risk.

To order the SAVRY:
Psychological Assessment Resource, Inc.
16204 North Florida Avenue
Lutz, FL 33549
USA
Telephone: +1-800-331-8378 or +1-813-449-4065
Website: www3.parinc.com

SAVRY

DUTCH VERSION OF THE SAVRY
Lodewijks, Doreleijers, de Ruiter, & Wit de-Grouls, 2006.
SAVRY Handleiding voor de gestructureerde risicotaxatie van gewelddadig gedrag bij jongeren. Assen: Van Gorcum; ISBN: 978-90-809689-2-9.

Om risicovol gedrag te kunnen verminderen, schatten we in welke risico’s de jongeren lopen op het gebied van hun ontwikkeling. Vervolgens kijken we hoe we die risico´s kunnen verkleinen. Hiervoor gebruiken we de SAVRY, een speciaal risicotaxatie- en risicohanteringsinstrument. De SAVRY is bedoeld als hulpmiddel voor professionele beoordelaars bij het inschatten van (en het doen van uitspraken over) het geweldsrisico bij jongeren. De SAVRY is voor Nederland gevalideerd door Henny Lodewijks en collega’s (Lodewijks, Doreleijers, De Ruiter, & Borum, 2008; Lodewijks, De Ruiter, & Doreleijers, in press; Lodewijks, Doreleijers, & De Ruiter, in press). Dit valideringsonderzoek heeft uitgewezen dat de SAVRY betrouwbaar te coderen is door getrainde beoordelaars en dat het instrument een goede voorspeller is van geweld binnen en buiten de inrichting. De meeste van de publicaties over de Nederlandse SAVRY zijn te dowloaden via deze site: Engelstalige publicaties.

The Dutch version of the SAVRY can be obtained from:
www.rentray.nl
E-mail: jverweij@rentray.nl.

You can find information on SAVRY training on:
www.rentray.nl

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SEXUAL VIOLENCE RISK-20 (SVR-20)
Boer, Hart, Kropp, & Webster, 1997

This is a 20-item guideline for assessing risk of reoffending in sex offenders. Eleven items deal with Psychosocial Adjustment, 7 with Sexual Offenses and 2 with Future Plans. Scoring is based on a N (definitely not present), ? (perhaps or more or less present), or Y (definitely present) scale, with allowance for changes over time. The SVR-20 has been shown to be an effective predictor of future sexual violence, also in a Dutch sample of mixed sex offenders (De Vogel, De Ruiter, Van Beek, & Mead, 2004).

To order the SVR-20:
Psychological Assessment Resource, Inc.
16204 North Florida Avenue
Lutz, FL 33549
USA
Telephone: +1-800-331-8378 or +1-813-449-4065
Website: www3.parinc.com

SVR-20

DUTCH VERSION OF THE SVR-20
Hildebrand, De Ruiter, & Van Beek, 2001

The SVR-20 was translated into Dutch, but some of the item-descriptions were also updated and expanded with more recent research, all in accordance with the original authors. The Dutch SVR-20 can be reliably coded and is a good predictor of future sexual violence ((De Vogel, De Ruiter, Van Beek, & Mead, 2004).

‘SVR-20: beoordelen van het risico van seksueel gewelddadig gedrag’ can be obtained from: www.forumeducatief.nl

SVR-20

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RISK for SEXUAL VIOLENCE PROTOCOL (RSVP)
Hart, Kropp, & Laws, with Klaver,, Logan, & Watt, 2003
Burnaby, BC: Simon Fraser University, Mental Health, Law, and Policy Institute.

A set of guidelines for assessing risk of sexual violence. The guidelines concern both the procedure and the content of risk assessments. They specify how the risk assessment should be conducted, as well as which risk factors should be assessed.

The RSVP can be obtained from: proactive-resolutions.com

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CHILD ABUSE RISK EVALUATION-NL (CARE-NL)
De Ruiter & De Jong, 2006

De CARE-NL is bedoeld om richting te geven aan het besluitvormingsproces rondom gevallen van (vermoedelijke) kindermishandeling. De CARE-NL bestaat uit 18 empirisch onderbouwde risicofactoren, op basis waarvan een gestructureerd professioneel oordeel over het risico van kindermishandeling kan worden opgesteld. De originele versie van de CARE-NL is ontwikkeld in Canada en was alleen bestemd voor het schatten van het risico in gevallen van lichamelijk mishandeling en verwaarlozing. De definitie van kindermishandeling die gehanteerd wordt in de CARE-NL is gelijk aan de definitie in de Nederlandse Wet op de Jeugdzorg. Daarbij is in handleiding van de CARE-NL een uitgebreide omschrijving gegeven per vorm van kindermishandeling (lichamelijke mishandeling en verwaarlozing, emotionele verwaarlozing en seksueel misbruik).

Een eerste retrospectief onderzoek naar de betrouwbaarheid en de voorspellende waarde van de CARE-NL liet goede resultaten zien (De Ruiter, De Jong, & Van der Hoorn, 2008). Op dit moment wordt de CARE-NL binnen Nederland landelijk ingevoerd op de Bureaus Jeugdzorg. De trainingen worden verzorgd door Corine de Ruiter, Martin Hildebrand, Paul Pollman, en Erika de Jong (zie Trainingen).

De CARE-NL is te bestellen via:
www.corinederuiter.eu

E-mail: corine.deruiter@xs4all.nl
De kosten bedragen 25 euro inclusief verzendkosten.

CARE-NL

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EARLY ASSESSMENT RISK LIST FOR BOYS (EARL-20B)
Augimeri, Koegl, Webster, & Levene, 2001
EARLY ASSESSMENT RISK LIST FOR GIRLS (EARL-21G)
Levene, Augimeri, Pepler, Walsh, Webster, & Koegl, 2001

The EARL-20B and EARL-21G are structured professional risk assessment devices that provide a comprehensive framework to evaluate known risk factors that may influence young children's propensity to engage in future antisocial behavior. The devices are research-based and informed by the clinical expertise of professionals with extensive experience treating children under the age of 12 with conduct problems. The device contains 20 items for the boys' version and 21 items for the girls' version that are organized under three broad sections: Child, Family, and Responsivity. Each item is rated on a 3-point scale (0- not present, 1- possibly present, 2- present) where a higher score represents greater risk. All factors are weighted equally to yield a total maximum score of 40 for the boys and 42 for the girls. In addition to the rating column, there is also a "critical risk" column that allows clinicians to red flag factors that are particularly concerning, and an "overall professional judgment" rating that allows assessors to assign an overall, global rating of risk. There have been a number of research studies carried out in Canada and Sweden, confirming the predictive validity of these instrument for future antisocial behavior.

The EARL-20B and EARL-21G can be obtained from:
Child Development Institute
Website: www.childdevelop.ca
197 Euclid Ave.
Toronto, Ontario M6J 2J8
Canada
Tel: (416) 603-1827
Fax: (416) 603-6655
E-mail: ccco@childdevelop.ca or 416-654-8981 ext.148.

DUTCH VERSION OF THE EARL-20B
Hildebrand, De Ruiter, & Ligthart, 2008
DUTCH VERSION OF THE EARL-21G
De Ruiter & Hillege, 2009

Corine de Ruiter obtained permission from the authors to translate the instruments into Dutch. Currently (Summer 2008), a first retrospective file-study with the EARL-20B is under way. The Dutch EARL-20B is in press and will be published sometime in the Fall of 2008. The Dutch EARL-21G is scheduled to be published in 2009.

The Dutch EARL-20B and EARL-21G can be obtained from:
www.corinederuiter.eu

E-mail: corine.de.ruiter@xs4all.nl when they are available.

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